Jersey’s housing challenge is about supply mismatch, not just numbers

New research suggests Jersey’s housing pressures are not simply caused by a lack of homes, but by a shortage of the types of properties islanders need most.

A new housing assessment by Statistics Jersey forecasts a net deficit of around 310 homes over the next three years before any additional construction takes place. However, the figures reveal a more complex picture, with significant differences between the demand for smaller and larger properties.

The report estimates Jersey could face a shortage of around 1,510 smaller homes, while having a surplus of approximately 1,200 larger properties.

The analysis combines population and household forecasts with findings from the 2025 Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, which gathered views on people’s future housing plans and living arrangements.

Demand is expected to be strongest for one and two-bedroom homes, with the report suggesting that many people are unable to access more suitable properties because of affordability pressures.

In the owner-occupier sector, the projected shortage includes around 820 two-bedroom homes, contributing to an overall shortfall of approximately 190 properties.

However, when affordability factors are taken into account, the picture changes. Using lower-quartile house prices and a borrowing limit of six times household income, the number of people able to buy a home falls significantly.

This reduces pressure on the owner-occupied market, turning the predicted shortage into a potential surplus of around 640 homes. Instead, more households are expected to remain in rented accommodation or continue living with family.

The rental sector is therefore expected to experience increasing demand, with the report forecasting a shortfall of around 450 qualified rental homes.

The assessment is based on an assumption of net inward migration of around 400 people each year. Under that scenario, the supply of non-qualified accommodation is expected to remain broadly balanced. If migration were to rise to 800 people annually, the report predicts a shortfall of around 380 homes.

The findings will be used to help shape future government housing policy and planning decisions, highlighting the need for more targeted development rather than simply increasing the overall number of properties.