Projected Island Population to Fall to 96,460 by 2080

New official forecasts suggest the population of Jersey will hold steady at around 104,540 until mid-century before gradually declining to about 96,460 by 2080.

The projections, published by Statistics Jersey, are based on modelling of migration trends alongside expected birth rates and life expectancy. The data is intended to guide long-term decisions on housing, public services and workforce planning.

Analysts said the 2080 estimate assumes average net migration of 380 additional residents per year — meaning arrivals minus departures — combined with current demographic trends.

However, maintaining the size of the island’s working-age population would require significantly higher inward migration, at roughly 700 people annually, according to the report.

Even with migration increasing by about 400 people per year — similar to present levels — the number of residents of working age is expected to fall steadily. Figures indicate a drop from 68,530 in 2024 to 62,770 by 2050, and then to 54,410 by 2080.

Fewer Young People, More Older Residents

The outlook also points to a shrinking youth population. Under every migration scenario studied, the number of children under 16 is projected to decline compared with current levels — meaning fewer locally born residents entering the workforce in future decades.

By contrast, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise significantly through to 2050, reflecting longer life expectancy and an ageing population.

Researchers also examined the balance between dependants and workers, a key measure for planning healthcare, pensions and other services. If net migration were to increase by 400 annually, the dependency ratio would climb from about 52 non-working-age residents for every 100 working-age adults in 2024 to more than 77 by 2080.

Officials say the projections highlight the demographic challenges facing Jersey in the coming decades, particularly the pressure on public services and the labour market as the population ages.