Jersey’s Declining Birth Rate Branded a ‘Time Bomb’

Jersey’s Birth Rate Drop ‘A Ticking Time Bomb,’ Warns Minister

Jersey’s housing minister has issued a stark warning over the island’s plummeting birth rate, describing it as a “ticking bomb” for the economy and society.

Deputy Sam Mézec said the combination of fewer births and an ageing population could leave Jersey struggling to sustain its workforce and public services in the coming decades.

Figures from Policy Centre Jersey show the number of births between 2021 and 2024 fell by 20% — four times the drop seen in England and Wales. Births in the first half of 2025 were also down 4% compared with the same period in 2024.

Mézec blamed soaring housing costs for driving young families away, saying many could not find — or afford — homes suitable for raising children.

“Over the last few decades, family-sized homes have become more and more unaffordable in Jersey,” he said. “We need to act now to reverse the trend by helping younger people into these homes.”

Policy Centre Jersey’s report also revealed a 10% drop in births in 2024 alone, alongside a 5.6% fall in primary school enrolments over the past two years. Senior adviser Mark Boleat warned that small jurisdictions like Jersey are more vulnerable to demographic shifts. “In England, a 5% fall is manageable. Here, a 20% fall is already having a very significant effect,” he said.

For some parents, the cost of living is the decisive factor. Father-of-one Bobby Yordanov said the expense of childcare meant he and his partner would likely leave the island if they had another child. “One of your salaries just covers nursery,” he said. Abdul Bassit, a father of two, added that food and clothing prices were climbing “every day.”

Not everyone sees the decline as a crisis. Environmentalist Nigel Jones argued that lower birth rates often reflect higher education levels, particularly among women, and are not inherently negative. “If work needs doing in the future, there will be people who can come to Jersey and do it,” he said.

The debate leaves Jersey facing a pressing question: whether to view its shrinking birth rate as a challenge to be solved, or as a sign of social change to be managed.