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- markdarrenwilkinso
- Aug 5
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Falling Birth Rates Prompt Concern Over Future of Jersey’s Primary Schools
The number of pupils enrolled in Jersey’s primary schools has dropped by 5.6% over the past two years, according to new research by Policy Centre Jersey (PCJ), prompting renewed debate over the future shape of the island’s education system.
The findings are based on data from Public Health Jersey, which revealed that births in the island fell by almost 10% in 2024 compared with the previous year — a sharp decline that PCJ warns could have long-term implications for school enrolment and planning.
The research highlighted that four primary schools across the island had experienced pupil number drops of more than 10%, with the impact felt unevenly across the school network. Jersey currently operates 24 primary schools, with an average enrolment of 254 pupils. However, the report points out that six schools accommodate more than 350 pupils each, while nine have fewer than 200.
“This suggests an unusual distribution in school size,” the charity said. “There may well be a need for some restructuring, particularly among the smaller schools. However, in practice, there will likely be more pressure for smaller class sizes rather than for school closures.”
The demographic trend raises broader concerns about the sustainability of Jersey’s population growth. PCJ said that without intervention, it would be difficult for the government to reverse the falling birth rate, noting that financial incentives might be required to encourage families to have more children.
More fundamentally, the group cited Jersey’s high cost of living — particularly soaring housing prices — as a potential deterrent for younger people who might otherwise consider settling on the island.
“If the high cost of living in Jersey is leading young people to leave or avoid moving to the island, this can only be addressed through measures aimed at reducing living costs, particularly housing,” PCJ said.
In response to such concerns, the government has recently unveiled a 25-year infrastructure strategy aimed at improving public amenities and tackling key issues including the island’s ageing infrastructure and unaffordable housing.
